Estimation of the true magnitude of gender violence cases detectable in the primary healthcare system

Advanced statistical models can substantially improve the understanding of gender-based violence in Spain. A study conducted by a team of researchers specialised in social data, coordinated by Professor David Moriña from the Department of Mathematics at the UAB and researcher at the Centre de Recerca Matemàtica (CRM), and funded by the Observatory of the “la Caixa” Foundation, highlights that official records show an incomplete picture of the phenomenon.

Using advanced statistical modeling techniques, the team has estimated the real magnitude of gender-based violence cases that could be detected from the primary healthcare system of the Catalan Health Institute in the Northern Metropolitan Area of ​​Barcelona, based on the cases registered during the period 2010-2021. Researchers estimate that around 11% of victims of gender-based violence in the Northern Metropolitan Health Region of Barcelona who sought primary care were duly identified as victims of gender-based violence: 3,110 victims were detected in a model that estimates a total of 27,264 victims.

The study highlights the importance of considering interventions that may have an impact on gender-based violence. They specifically evaluated the impact among primary healthcare professionals of implementing awareness campaigns, which began to be rolled out at the end of 2019. After these campaigns, the primary healthcare system in Catalonia is estimated to be detecting around 42% of cases of gender-based violence, according to the number of cases calculated by the model developed by researchers.

Furthermore, researchers observed that the use of the primary healthcare system varies depending on the characteristics of the victims, and that the problem of underdetection could be even more serious, especially among younger victims. Although surveys show that the greatest risk is observed in the age group of 16 to 45 years, the primary healthcare system rarely detects the youngest victims, those between 16 and 25 years old.

The study was carried out by researchers David Moriña, Amanda Fernández-Fontelo and Pere Puig, from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Isabel Millán and Víctor Alonso-Lara, from the University of Barcelona; and Pere Torán, Meritxell Gómez-Maldonado and Gemma Falguera, from the Jordi Gol Primary Care Research Institute (IDIAPJGol) and the Catalan Institute of Health.

Reference articles:

Moriña, D.; Millán, I.; Fernández-Fontelo, A.; Puig, P.; Toran, P.; Gómez-Maldonado, M.; Falguera, G. (2024). Exploring what lies beneath the tip of the gender-based violence iceberg. MedRxiv. DOI: 10.1101/2024.02.26.24303373. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.02.26.24303373v1

David Moriña et al. (2025) Els casos de violència de gènere reportats són només la punta de l’iceberg, l’ObservatoriSocial. https://oobservatoriosocial.fundacaolacaixa.pt/ca/web/observatorisocial/-/models-estadistics-violencia-de-genere